Brain Bush’s Blog

An Interesting Election Development

  • By : Brian Bush
  • February 5, 2009
  • 3:10 pm

Well lets give Chuck what he wants – an update to my Blog on the Electons here in Israel.

With just 5 days before elections: Tzipi Livni of the more centralist Kadima is closing in on Bibi Netanyahu of Right Wing Likud.

The Television Channel 2 poll showed the gap between Kadima and Likud down to three mandates.

The apparent reduction in the gap with Likud in the polls is encouraging the Kadima camp. Some senior Kadima officials are saying they will demand a rotation of governance.

How would that work you ask? In the event of a tie or the outcome being a very close vote, they say, they will act to create a joint government – two years of Netanyahu as Prime Minister and then two years of Livni.

Mr. Netanyahu's goal right now is to lock up a block majority. The only way he will do that is making use of the ultra right winger Avigdor Lieberman of the Yisrael Beytenu party before the elections take place.

Your next question is how will he do that? Bibi will simply offer Mr. Lieberman an important Ministerial portfolio. Senior Yisrael Beytenu campaign staff, an official in fact, has said that Mr. Lieberman will want the Defense portfolio. This worries a lot of people both in and outside of the country.

It would be safer for Mr. Netanyahu to want a Government with Ehud Barak of the Labor Party at Defense.

Again – with the gap narrowing, some of these political opportunists believe there is still a chance for Tzipi Livni and the Kadima party. But just in case Livni and the Kadima take a beating – Likud sources have made contacts with the Kadima ministers who are likely to quit the party if Livni loses.

If Livni can turn the apathy and lack of enthusiasm of the left-wing youth in Israel around, as what – especially in comparison to their right-wing counterparts – Mr. Netanyahu has done for himself and the Likud, she just may be in the running.

We'll keep you posted so check back in!

Brian

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