Brain Bush’s Blog

Israel's Fears

  • By : Brian Bush
  • July 16, 2013
  • 7:36 pm

Hi All!

Lets expand a little bit right now on what I spoke of yesterday on the Harvest Show from here in Jerusalem.

Israel has legitimate fears about the current instability in the region.

The situation in Egypt, with it's potential for an even more Islamist government after the upcoming elections, is a huge worry to Israel.

The continued violence being experienced could force the Egyptian military into a larger action – one that analysts say could ultimately lead to civil war if not handled correctly.

What happens in Egypt reverberates throughout the Arab world.

And when one thinks about that, if a civilian regime in Egypt pushes the Muslim Brotherhood too far, we will see the effect of that action in Turkey – a country who Israel once had good relations with and is currently seeking rapprochement.

It is important that Israel continues to have frequent and direct dialogue with the Egyptian military in this window prior to elections in Egypt.

They must not make any public statements on Egypt's internal affairs so as to avoid being perceived as taking sides.

Lastly, they must be ready for any development that comes up diplomatically or in a terrorist act emerging from the Egyptian controlled Sinai.

So what would be Israel's “nightmare scenario” in this turbulent time in the region?

The collapse of Jordan.

Jordan has hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refuges. Add to that the hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees to an already weak and battered economy and you have a recipe for trouble.

A radicalized Jordan would put Israel on the defensive in a major way, in that the two countries share a long border with each other through the Jordan Valley and Israel's Negev. It would entail a massive military reinforcement to secure the border.

Jordan also has been a crucial partner to the Israelis in their relations with the Palestinian Authority – that would be gone.

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is secure at the moment because of it's government and by the King's care and attention paid to Bedouin tribes who make up his well trained and equipped army.

In return for their loyalty, it is them who occupy key military posts for King Abdullah II.

Thankfully things seem relatively secure now, but if Jordan were to see militant Islam come to power, it would be terribly straining on the defense establishment in Israel as they must deal with threats from it's eastern border in addition to Hezbollah in the north, Syria to the north east, Hamas in the southwest, and terror emulating from the Sinai in the south.

Brian Bush
Middle East Correspondent
LeSEA Broadcasting

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