Brain Bush’s Blog

Libya's Points of Transition

  • By : Brian Bush
  • August 23, 2011
  • 7:33 pm

Hello All,

All day, like many here in the Middle East, I have watched the turning of events in Libya.

The appearance of Colonel Moammar Gadhafi's second oldest son and one time heir apparent Saif al-Islam was quite the turnaround.

It really put the issue of Rebel credibility on the line.

But regardless of what happened there, the rebel forces are in Tripoli and it does appear that we are witnessing the final hours of the Gadhafi era.

The Arab states are lining up behind the western powers in declaring their support for the rebel's transitional council.

But major questions remain; Libya is a deeply tribal country – and the leadership that has emerged, if it is going to be accepted by the western powers, will need to assure that a sense of democratic protections will be in place for the minority tribes.

Gadhafi sustained his rule in recent years by pitting these adverse tribes against each other.
This stabilization is paramount as this oil rich state could fall into further disarray if there is no assurance of a spreading of wealth.

There is also the issue of the assumed chemical and biological weapons. Let's hope there are no real amounts – but if there are – will they be accounted for and destroyed?

There are plenty of players in the world of terror who would be interested in the weaponry of Gadhafi.

Lastly, Saif al-Islam courted the Islamists of his country in an attempt to solidify his powers. It is not entirely clear how much momentum the Islamist could muster at this delicate time of revolution.

But this is what the West is most likely going to concentrate on now are three points of transition – obtaining any weaponry of an unconventional nature, keeping the tribes from infighting and limiting the Islamist's possibilities.

There needs to be a period of celebration, there needs to be a period of recognition for those who perished in the struggle, followed by the task of cleaning up and rebuilding – and all the while, the forming of governance and structure with all the overt help the emerging power can get.

Brian Bush
Middle East Correspondent
LeSEA Broadcasting

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