Lets look briefly now at the basic issue of Palestinian Statehood set to be declared in September.
In some ways, for those living here knowing the intricacies of the politics, it is difficult to understand that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmud Abbas has decided to go the route of claiming the moral victory of Statehood.
The reason many scratch their heads at this is that in all the effort and ceremony of declaring Statehood, at the same time it is also possible to see the Palestinian Authority's collapse and that of his Authority this September.
It is fairly certain that the UN General Assembly will recognize a Palestinian state. But it is only the UN Security Council that grants UN membership.
Will it comes to that table, the US has veto power and will likely use it.
So why do the anylists see the PA's collapse?
The reason is that they feel Mr. Abbas is endangering his fragile Authority's relations with the US by going agaist Israel (and thus them), and with many governments in Europe.
Many European countries support the Palestinians economically and through Government aid. Additionally, as with Americans, some are concerned with the Palestinian Authority attempting to make a deal with Hamas on a Unity Government – which has failed so far and now will be put off till September.
The PA powerbrokers must be careful because if they act against the wishes of these world powers, they are liable to find themselfs facing a withdrawal of monetary support and aid assistance.
Without these, the Palestinian Authority will surely collapse diplomatically and economically.
One may ask – what about the Arab States – won't they help the Palestinians? Frankly, no – they don't want to deal with them.
Israel has said that if the Palestinian Authority acts to establish a Palestinian state, the Oslo Accords – which are viewed as transitional agreements – will be abrogated.
This means Israel would stop collecting the Value Added Tax on behalf of the PA, which means that the major monthly cash transfers from Israel to the authority would come to a stop.
As the Palestinians have no means to prop themselves up financially, when Israel would do this – the Palestinian Authority would collapse within a week.
Perhaps Hamas is using this as a pressure on Abbas to accept more of there terms… perhaps some Arab countries are being pressured by western powers to help torpedo the unilateral Palestinian move…
One thing is sure – this September the UN table looks more and more like a political poker game full of bluffs and diplomatic big bets.
Middle East Correspondent