Let's analysis yesterday's shooting of an IDF solider, who was inside Israeli territory, apparently by a solider of the Lebanese Army along the border.
The Israeli Army shot dead two Lebanese soldiers after the incident – but the instigator reported to his base.
Many wonder if the IDF claim that the solider lost his life shot by the independent action of a rogue soldier. This is a convenient remark for the IDF.
If the 'official' line were that Hezbollah had initiated the attack, this would require Israel to retaliate against them – something neither side wants at this point.
“Escalation” along the border is not in either sides interests.
You may recall that last wee a senior Hezbollah commander was assassinated outside his home in Beirut – something Israel denies involvement in.
One could say that, as Hezbollah claims Israel was behind the killing, this was a type of retribution.
It is worthy to note that the Lebanese Army forces deployed along the border are allegedly made up mostly of fighters from the Shi'ite community.
These would be men who would align their personal views with Hezbollah and therefore would not interfere with any operations being carried out by the organization.
Nonetheless the Israeli defense establishment has reached the conclusion that the incident does not express any substantive change in conduct along the Lebanese border, neither by the Lebanese Army nor by Hezbollah.
After IDF representatives meet with Lebanese Army counterparts the assessment is that both of these armed elements will continue to make an effort to maintain calm in the area.
But debunking this theory is the report that the Lebanese soldier in question is reportedly Sunni.
One could speculate that he might have had radical Islamist sympathies and may have wanted to embroil Hezbollah in a clash with Israel.
Middle East Correspondent