Brain Bush’s Blog

Syrian Security Nuisances

  • By : Brian Bush
  • July 24, 2012
  • 11:55 am

Good Day All,

In the headlines, both here in Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East, the moving of Syria's chemical weapons to more remote bases, and those along it's borders is raising concern.

In the event of the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad and his regime, the issue of what happens to these stock piles and their security has become a high profile issue.

But that's just one of the long list of security nuisances that will have to be dealt with.

Israel's border with Syria, which has been quiet for years, is a tangible concern.

The Golan border saw 500 Syrian government soldiers move into a restricted zone in their maneuvers against rebel forces they were engaging.

That event reminds Israel that the quiet will likely go away as it did in the Sinai after the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

The scenario would not be 'war', but rather terror related, with an agenda of abducting or harming Israeli soldiers and civilians.

We have seen this a couple times after the fall of Mubarak in the south of the country.

But security and defense analysts are saying that in the long Israel stands to make a net gain.

With no Assad regime, the so-called 'axis of evil', as former US President George Bush titled it, will lose its territorial continuity between Iran and Lebanon.

Iranian and Hezbollah operatives will likely not be able to remain in the country as it will turn from the Alawite based governance to a Sunni based one – something Shia Iran and Hezbollah prefer not to see.

Jihadists have had safe haven in Syria, but according to reports, many senior Islamic Jihad figures have already fled to Iran, fearing Syria's support for terrorism will stop at the behest of the West, whom the new Syrian government will court because it will need it's support.

As the closest country to be effected by the Arab Spring, Syria is being seen more and more in Israel as a threat, rather than a revolution in progress bringing hope for change towards the better.

Brian Bush
Middle East Correspondent
LeSEA Broadcasting

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